Extreme heat is no longer exclusive to the Iberian Peninsula or Southern Europe. The European continent is experiencing increasingly common heat episodes, with growing intensity and earliness. According to data from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Europe has warmed at a rate of 0.56 ºC per decade over the last 30 years, making it the fastest-warming continent.
In late May this year, numerous maximum and minimum temperature records for the month were set in countries like France and the United Kingdom, highlighting the trend. The current heat episode is expected to intensify early next week, with forecasts pointing to maximum temperature values that could break historical records for a June in several capitals and regions of Western and Southern Europe.
In Catalonia, heat will also be present, although Barcelona and the coast are expected to remain outside the highest records. The most intense episode is anticipated between Monday the 21st and Thursday the 25th of June. Subsequently, the arrival of a cooler Atlantic air mass could initiate a gradual temperature decrease, shifting the warm air bubble towards the Eastern Mediterranean.
France, particularly its center and west, could be the most affected area, with models predicting weekly average temperatures more than 10 degrees above the climatic average. The probability of breaking June heat records is very high, close to 100% in some European regions. The Extreme Forecast Index (EFI) from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts indicates values above 0.8 in areas such as Catalonia, the Pyrenees, the Cantabrian region, and extensive territories of Central Europe, suggesting very unusual or extreme temperatures.
In Barcelona, Sunday will see a temperature rise that will continue on Monday, marking the hottest day. In inland and northern regions, Tuesday could see similar or higher readings. Although a significant temperature drop is not expected until the end of the week, Barcelona may not meet the criteria for an official heatwave declaration.
This extreme heat, combined with previous episodes, could harm deciduous trees in Western Europe, which suffer significant water loss with such high temperatures and low humidity.
