For over a decade, the Catalan political landscape has been shaped by unique dynamics, where alliances and ruptures were primarily organized around the national axis. However, the 2027 municipal elections, particularly in Barcelona, could mark the beginning of a profound transformation. While independence and the national question will not disappear, indications suggest they will no longer be the sole determining factors in Catalan political competition.
The Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) is spearheading a 'normalization' strategy across the region, aiming to revert to a pre-'Procés' scenario and establish social "pax" to consolidate absolute institutional power.
The emergence of Aliança Catalana is acting as a catalyst for this shift. For the first time since the 'Procés' began, Catalan and Spanish left-wing parties have an actor that facilitates the reconstruction of a political narrative based on the confrontation between a progressive bloc and a right-wing increasingly influenced by the far-right. This model, similar to the PSOE's strategy with Vox in Spain, is now being adapted by the PSC in Catalonia, despite the differences between Junts and the PP, and Aliança Catalana and Vox.
The PSC's intention is to frame the 2027 municipal elections as a battle between those who guarantee stable governments and those who might end up depending on the hard right. This positions the PSC as the inevitable political center, forcing other parties to define their stance within this framework. However, the success of this strategy hinges not only on Aliança Catalana's presence but also on the ability to associate Junts with it, a crucial element in the political contest ahead.
The socialist narrative, echoed by ERC and the Comuns, posits that Junts and Aliança Catalana are vying for the same electoral space, thus belonging to the same political universe. This astute political maneuver places Junts in a defensive position: embracing a sanitary cordon against Aliança Catalana risks alienating voters towards Sílvia Orriols' party, while rejecting it leads to accusations of enabling the far-right, both outcomes carrying significant political costs.
Nevertheless, Junts remains a party difficult to categorize within traditional Catalan political frameworks. It holds mayoralties, governs diverse municipalities, and retains a cross-cutting appeal inherited from the former Convergència and the 'Procés' itself.
Meanwhile, the Republicans face a notable contradiction. While aiming to maintain a distinct identity from the PSC, their institutional influence largely depends on their relationship with the socialists, both in Barcelona, Madrid, and foreseeably, in the Generalitat in the coming years. This dependency curtails their capacity to forge a genuine alternative power base.
Ultimately, the PSC's ambition for 2027 is to reconstruct a system of ideological blocs where socialists lead the progressive space. The goal is to compel Junts to assume the role of a national Catalan right comparable to those in other European countries. The central debate will not revolve around independence, but rather around who will form future governing coalitions and who will be excluded.
