After an April 2026 that broke historical temperature records since 1914, becoming the warmest recorded at the Observatori Fabra with an average of 1.5 °C above the previous record, attention turns to the forecasts for May.

Seasonal models, such as SEAS5 (ECMWF), project positive temperature values for the entire Catalan territory. May is expected to be milder than usual, with an anomaly of more than half a degree above the average. In some areas of the Pre-Pyrenees, warming could reach up to 1 °C above normal.

Similarly, the NOAA American agency model forecasts temperatures between 0.5 and 1 °C higher than the climatic average, especially in the western half of the country and the Pyrenees. This trend suggests that values will remain above what is usual for the season, although some cooler days are not ruled out.

Regarding precipitation, a more dynamic and humid start to May is expected. After an April with only 16 l/m² collected at the Observatori Fabra, the NOAA model predicts that May 2026 could be equal to or slightly rainier than normal, especially in the inland regions. However, the ECMWF disagrees and forecasts a May with rainfall within normality or even slightly lower.

Despite the inherent uncertainty in seasonal models, short-term forecasts indicate that showers could be frequent during the first fortnight of May. According to the Central European seasonal model, this first part of the month could receive more rain than usual due to the possible arrival of cold air pockets.