Catalonia has seen a notable population increase between 2022 and 2026, rising from 7.76 to 8.20 million inhabitants, according to Idescat data. This growth of 440,000 people is primarily due to the arrival of 530,000 foreign-born individuals, while those born in Catalonia numbered 30,000. It is estimated that around 120,000 Spaniards have returned to their home country, possibly retirees seeking better purchasing power.
The arrival of approximately half a million foreigners in four years has raised the proportion of the foreign population in Catalonia to 26.3%. Despite this demographic transformation, the region has yet to engage in a structured public debate on the economic, social, and institutional implications of this phenomenon. A new document from 'Economists for Well-being', presented at the College of Economists of Catalonia, emphasizes that immigration is a key structural element for Catalonia's future, essential for sustaining economic activity and the welfare system.
The study warns that the current economic model, characterized by low-productivity activities and low wages, has largely absorbed immigrant labor in precarious jobs. This dynamic, exacerbated by an insufficient regional financing system, perpetuates labor market dualization, jeopardizes the sustainability of the welfare state, and limits improvements in productivity and social cohesion.
Josep Reyner, co-author of the document, highlights two main conclusions: the current migration policy is not suited to the country's needs and must be urgently changed. The unemployment rate for the foreign population in Catalonia reached 18.6% in the first quarter of 2026, significantly higher than the 7.7% for the Spanish population. Reyner notes that many Catalan employers report difficulty finding workers, despite the generally low qualifications of newcomers and frequent challenges in validating their studies.
Social integration is deficient, as evidenced by the high rates of poverty and school dropout among foreigners, as well as an educational lag of one and a half years compared to native students, according to the PISA report. The second-generation immigrant population often replicates the occupational patterns of their parents, a situation deemed very serious.
This situation creates pressure on housing and public services (education, healthcare), highlighting the lack of planning for migratory flows and the inadequacy of the regional financing model, which has been pending review since 2014. Catalonia, as a primary recipient of immigration in Spain, bears significant costs for public services and infrastructure, yet current funding does not adequately reflect migratory intensity or population growth.
The document also emphasizes the importance of the Catalan language and culture as a central axis for any immigration policy aimed at social cohesion. Active public policies for linguistic and civic integration are necessary, alongside a clear demand for integration.
The economists advocate for a new, explicit, and coherent migration policy that prioritizes flow planning, alignment with necessary professional profiles, combating precarious employment, and robust integration in all spheres. Concurrently, they propose a fundamental transformation of the production model towards one with higher added value.
Immigration can be an opportunity for Catalonia if integrated into a strategy of shared prosperity based on productivity, human capital, collective belonging, and solid institutions. Without this framework, risks will outweigh benefits; with it, immigration can become a key lever for economic progress, social cohesion, and the sustainability of the welfare state.
The debate on how to address this phenomenon is crucial for Catalonia's social, economic, and political balance in the immediate future. The document also points out that the fiscal deficit exacerbates the situation, limiting the response capacity of Catalan institutions.
