The Barcelona Chamber of Commerce has revised its Catalan economic growth forecast for 2026 upwards by three tenths, setting it at 2.5%. This improvement is attributed to the strong performance of economic activity in the first quarter, positive tourism outlooks, and robust employment figures, factors that solidify domestic demand as the primary economic driver.
The institution has also raised its inflation forecast for 2026 by three tenths, to 3.3%, mainly due to increased tensions in the Middle East. For 2027, an economic growth moderation to 1.8% is projected, one tenth higher than the previous estimate, within a scenario of progressive economic slowdown.
According to the report presented by the Chamber, domestic demand continues to be the main driver of the Catalan economy, supported by employment and wages. However, this momentum is expected to weaken in the coming quarters. Investment will also contribute to growth, although it will moderate as the deployment of Next Generation EU funds concludes.
In the external sector, non-tourism services have gained prominence, accounting for approximately 10% of Catalan exports. Goods sales abroad increased by 1% up to May, while imports of capital goods have grown since 2025, a trend the Chamber links to increased business investment.
The Chamber also anticipates a favorable tourism season this summer. By June, accommodation and restaurant prices had risen by 6.2% compared to the same period last year, exceeding general inflation.
In the automotive sector, imports have surpassed exports since 2022, reversing the trade balance to a deficit. Catalonia maintains a trade surplus with Europe, albeit reduced, while the deficit with Asia stands at 360 million euros, with China being the main contributor.
