The current discussion on housing issues and their location has led to considering densification as a primary solution. However, an analysis of demographic trends over the last quarter-century in Catalonia suggests a more complex reality, where population dispersion has played a significant role.
Data shows that, out of 947 Catalan municipalities, 51 have surpassed 25,000 inhabitants. These municipalities, which previously concentrated 71% of the population, now represent 66%. Conversely, the 896 smaller municipalities have seen their population share increase from 29% to 34%. This indicates that smaller populations have grown relatively more than large cities, especially those near Barcelona.
The growth rate has been 122% in large populations, while in smaller ones it reached 151%. In absolute terms, growth has been almost equally distributed: 51% in larger populations and 49% in smaller ones. This parity in concentration and dispersion trends challenges the idea of widespread densification and suggests that future growth margins will be even more concentrated in smaller municipalities.
Among the municipalities that have experienced the highest relative growth are Lloret de Mar (194%), Cambrils (177%), Sant Cugat del Vallès (175%), El Vendrell (173%), Sitges (161%), Vic (154%), and Salt (154%). Of these, four are coastal municipalities, one is metropolitan, and two are more distant. Additionally, 13 municipalities have grown between 30% and 50% more, including five from the metropolitan area (Castelldefels, Rubí, Molins de Rei, Terrassa, and Montcada i Reixac) and others from the coast or regional capitals.
Regarding absolute growth, Barcelona remains the city with the most new residents (207,000), but this figure is similar to the sum of the next five cities (223,000): Terrassa, L'Hospitalet de Llobregat, Sant Cugat del Vallès, Sabadell, and Lleida. Terrassa, in particular, has recorded remarkable absolute growth, with almost 58,000 more inhabitants during this period, exceeding a quarter of Barcelona's growth.
This dynamic suggests that population growth in Catalonia is more dispersed and complex than anticipated in territorial plans. Cities like Girona, Tarragona, Mataró, Castelldefels, Rubí, Reus, Badalona, and Lloret de Mar have surpassed 20,000 inhabitants in growth, many of them outside the Barcelona metropolitan region. This reality demands more detailed planning for services like Rodalies, considering not only housing but also economic activity, to prevent Barcelona from becoming a "black hole" of housing deficit and labor concentration.
