The latest poll from the Centre d’Estudis d’Opinió (CEO) positions the independence bloc on the verge of an absolute majority in the Parliament, with a range of 67 to 74 seats. This improvement is attributed to the rise of Aliança Catalana (AC), which could go from two seats to become the third force with 23 to 25 deputies, primarily at the expense of Junts per Catalunya. Despite the arithmetic possibility, forming an independence government is complex due to the refusal of ERC and the CUP to pact with AC, and the more ambiguous stance of Junts.
The parliamentary dominance of the independence movement, between 2012 and 2024, formed the basis of the 'procés'. The Junts-ERC-CUP bloc, oscillating between 70 and 74 seats, ensured the retention of power despite constant clashes between coalition partners. However, partisan infighting and the lack of a shared vision on how to advance towards independence led to voter demobilization, falling to 59 seats in the last elections. The emergence of AC, although initially with two seats, has poisoned the possibility of any agreement on the national axis.
According to Oriol Bartomeus, director of the Institute of Political and Social Sciences (ICPS), the prioritization of the independence agenda that united the anti-capitalist and centre-right bloc is now impossible. Bartomeus points out that issues like immigration, which divides the bloc, are now very significant. For one in five Catalans, immigration is the second biggest problem, surpassed only by housing.
The March 2022 barometer was the first to leave the independence supporters without an absolute majority. The polls removed it in 2024, and only a year ago did surveys again suggest a possible majority. AC has doubled its projection since then. Joan Rodríguez Teruel, director of the CEO, explains that AC attracts votes from all parties, and the erosion of Junts may be nearing its limit, while now Vox is suffering it.
The transfer of voters from Vox to Aliança Catalana raises doubts about the real agenda of Orriols' party, as only 55% of its electorate acknowledges supporting the independence path. Its rise, aided by the international context, is also explained by its anti-political discourse and its unashamedly Islamophobic message.
ERC and the CUP reaffirm their refusal to pact with AC. Oriol López, deputy general secretary of the Republicans, considers it unacceptable that AC promotes a "national minoritization" of immigrants. From Junts, they avoid commenting on the poll, but there is concern about the downward trend. Despite having signed a "democratic cordon" against Vox and AC, they have broken it in two votes on independence.
AC's rise in small towns and regional capitals could be significant. ERC's own polls align with the CEO's, and they will play the card of the "refuge vote for the national left." Bartomeus recalls the pragmatism of the "convergente gene," which could facilitate pacts with everyone, while ERC aims for an anti-authoritarian axis that includes the PSC.
Local politics can differ from regional or national politics. Junts made a pact with the socialists in the Barcelona Provincial Council in 2019, after PSC-ERC pacts had excluded them from thirty municipalities.
