Defining a Cold Wave: The Technical Criteria Used by Meteocat and AEMET

The recent cold snap in January highlights the differing official definitions used by meteorological agencies based on percentiles and reference periods.

Imatge genèrica d'un termòmetre exterior marcat per temperatures molt baixes i gelades.

Imatge genèrica d'un termòmetre exterior marcat per temperatures molt baixes i gelades.

The significant cold air intrusion at the beginning of January has brought attention to the varying technical criteria used by meteorological agencies to officially define a cold wave.

The Catalan Meteorological Service (Meteocat) defines a cold wave as three consecutive days where minimum temperatures fall below the threshold set by the 2nd percentile of data from the 2014-2023 period. For central Barcelona, this means minimums below 3.5 ºC for three days.
The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) uses a slightly different approach, employing the 5th percentile and relying on data from the 1971-2000 period. This older reference period results in lower thresholds, such as 0.3 ºC at the Barcelona airport station.
Crucially, the AEMET definition also requires a minimum territorial scope, demanding that 10% of meteorological stations in a region exceed the established thresholds. Studies confirm that, in the context of climate change, cold waves are decreasing in frequency, duration, and territorial extension.
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