The electoral impact of the recent railway accidents in Adamuz (Córdoba) and Gelida (Barcelona), which took place between January 18 and 20, is becoming a key factor in Spanish politics. The Gelida incident, which caused the death of a train driver and completely paralyzed the Catalan network, is now being compared to the effect of the Angrois tragedy (Santiago de Compostela) in July 2013.
Although the Angrois accident focused on human error, the Partido Popular (PP) lost more than two points in voting intention in the subsequent CIS barometer. Now, according to proprietary estimates based on the latest CIS survey, the PSOE would be the main electoral casualty, with a drop placing them below 27% of the vote.
The two accidents would leave socialism below 27% of the vote and the Partido Popular and Vox with up to 200 deputies.
This situation contrasts with the trend prior to the disaster, where the same CIS survey suggested that President Pedro Sánchez could easily finish ahead of Alberto Núñez Feijóo. The tragedy, an event of minimal probability (one in several trillions), has temporarily blocked a potential recovery for the Spanish left.
The analysis also suggests that the right, including the PP and Vox, could gain up to 250,000 additional votes, potentially surpassing 200 seats. This projection, however, is a “snapshot” subject to the immediate emotional effects of a major catastrophe.
